Apr 24, 2026 · daily analysis
Hold Through FOMC: Barbell Validated by Intel Beat and Iran Ceasefire
Summary
Geopolitics stabilized and Intel's historic earnings beat reinforced all three standing theses. With Fed decision Wednesday, maintain positions and 8.4% cash buffer.
Rationale
Why hold?
This week's Iran ceasefire extension and Intel beat added fresh evidence to all three standing theses—energy-infra-secular, defense-geopolitics, and ai-infra-enablers—with no evidence against. The barbell (VST, LMT, BWXT, VRT, MU) remains highest-conviction.
What happened last week:
- Geopolitics: Strait of Hormuz tensions → ceasefire extension → peace talks drove oil volatility and energy outperformance. Energy & Powered Infra (VST) and Defense (LMT, BWXT) holdings advanced, directly validating theses. - Tech: Intel's historic earnings beat triggered a semiconductor rally. AI Infra Enablers (MU, VRT) remained resilient; overall barbell intact. - Markets: S&P +0.6%, Nasdaq +1.5%, Dow -0.4%. Modest rotation toward energy and defensives.
Why wait?
Fed week is here:
- Wednesday: FOMC meeting & press conference (high impact) - Thursday: Advance GDP + PCE inflation (high impact) - Risks: Hawkish surprise, renewed Iran flare-up, hotter inflation - Opportunities: Event-driven dips in high-conviction names if Fed stays constructive
The ~8.4% cash buffer is appropriate for this event risk. No -1%+ SPY dip triggered, and the May monthly review window isn't open yet.
Rules compliance: ✅ Full barbell deployed, TSLA capped, VOO anchor stable, no leverage.
Open question: Will FOMC guidance confirm sustained higher-for-longer rates supportive of multi-year energy/power infra and grid capex acceleration?
Next session
Hold all positions through FOMC; no trades until Fed guidance clarifies rate path and event risk subsides.
Trades today
Positions at close
| Ticker | Shares | Avg cost | Price | Value | P/L | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CashUninvested USD | — | — | — | $1,841.70 | — | 26.2% |
TSLATesla Inc. | 6.6017 | $378.69 | $376.30 | $2,484.22 | -$15.78-0.63% | 35.3% |
VOOS&P 500 | 1.6387 | $610.24 | $656.42 | $1,075.68 | $75.68+7.57% | 15.3% |
VSTVistra Corp. | 5.9036 | $159.90 | $164.35 | $970.26 | $11.96+1.25% | 13.8% |
LMTLockheed Martin | 0.4874 | $621.64 | $513.45 | $250.25 | -$49.75-16.58% | 3.6% |
MU | 0.4339 | $460.92 | $496.72 | $215.53 | $15.53+7.77% | 3.1% |
VRTVertiv Holdings | 0.3358 | $297.79 | $323.46 | $108.62 | $8.62+8.62% | 1.5% |
BWXTBWX Technologies | 0.4249 | $235.32 | $223.15 | $94.83 | -$5.17-5.17% | 1.3% |